TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks56c16,067$8,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,071.0528056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers47c13,132$6,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,117.3169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Knicks39c12,835$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,834.537353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks38c10,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,200.425352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks38c7,892$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.242,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers48c7,218$3,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,494.222,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Knicks50c6,788$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.7755251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks46c6,647$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,572.1164948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Knicks46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,24032846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks59c5,645$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.8518651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Knicks47c5,300$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.0410645.3%48 W · 58 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Cavaliers63c4,772$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,006.5517249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cavaliers62c4,723$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.132045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cavaliers62c4,452$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.6752150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Cavaliers48c4,412$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.716043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers41c4,382$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.851,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…9504backed Cavaliers47c4,168$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.745459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Knicks53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8801764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Knicks53c4,000$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.9911451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Cavaliers62c3,931$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.2228643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Cavaliers27c3,555$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.1434255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Cavaliers48c3,384$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.2856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Cavaliers62c3,226$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.435657.1%32 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Cavaliers61c3,173$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.6326753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers48c3,057$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.171,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers56c2,994$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.938,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Cavaliers50c2,582$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3003531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers46c2,245$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.4593148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers41c2,241$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.5163746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers41c2,217$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.5190650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Cavaliers64c2,111$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.047549.3%37 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Knicks39c2,050$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.547950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Cavaliers62c2,037$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.2516039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Knicks36c1,727$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.2312741.7%53 W · 74 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks60c1,617$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.151,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cavaliers62c1,510$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.0362051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Knicks37c1,500$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.986341.3%26 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers62c1,381$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.351,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers62c1,359$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…2839backed Knicks36c1,334$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.463100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+130.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cavaliers39c1,275$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.0753842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f8…ecc1backed Cavaliers63c1,258$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x503a…8322backed Cavaliers50c1,200$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6045558.2%32 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Cavaliers64c1,120$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7123652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb8c…6a99backed Knicks38c1,021$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.055743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cavaliers48c992$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.1630551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers53c943.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.911,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Cavaliers64c912.73$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.1521450%107 W · 107 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Cavaliers61c875.45$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.591,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers46c869.73$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.61,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Cavaliers53c857$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.741,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Cavaliers63c827.9$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.5810256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Knicks59c799.9$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9536243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers49c784.96$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers43c704$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.722,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb29e…d14fbacked Cavaliers63c689.99$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Knicks61c680$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.94746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…e53bbacked Cavaliers63c669.99$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Knicks38c613.16$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.165158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Knicks58c598.78$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.9176653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Cavaliers51c591.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30065649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x750c…d430backed Knicks37c557.14$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35111258.9%66 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…8a37backed Knicks37c546.95$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.924148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Knicks61c542.71$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6727245.6%124 W · 148 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Knicks37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.5411440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Knicks38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.3236843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Knicks38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35c9…bc74backed Knicks38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.3234661.6%213 W · 133 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Knicks38c523.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1352760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Knicks50c520$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25978445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers61c517.73$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.791,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers45c509.85$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Cavaliers62c503$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.0718653.2%99 W · 87 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2452,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Knicks37c492$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.9615246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Cavaliers52c454.85$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.0821953.4%117 W · 102 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1988…a534backed Knicks41c414.4$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.923650%18 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Cavaliers64c402$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.289044.4%40 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…8fc6backed Knicks53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.361866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Cavaliers56c363.66$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20222844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2c…d911backed Cavaliers27c352.18$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Knicks43c348.28$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.2812548%60 W · 65 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cavaliers23c340.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4978639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cavaliers63c322.54$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.191,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf9…7a19backed Knicks37c315.36$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.363246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Cavaliers28c309.08$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.387233.3%24 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Cavaliers45c300$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1369627.1%26 W · 70 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cavaliers57c266.16$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8246959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62ca…780cbacked Knicks38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.164854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Cavaliers61c253.19$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2492750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Cavaliers52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13025045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdfc…22b8backed Cavaliers63c238.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Knicks76c235.83$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.61,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb18d…3464backed Knicks71c223.86$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.865160.8%31 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Cavaliers24c217.94$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6952053.3%277 W · 243 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Cavaliers23c215.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7424936.9%92 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Knicks75c215.06$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7652861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…03e5backed Knicks59c209.02$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.872466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38dd…e656backed Knicks38c200.11$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.573644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers58c193.68$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.273,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.