TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Cavaliers, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,409,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,437,027

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,409,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Knicks49c400,000$196,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203,999.993240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Knicks49c338,159$165,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172,842.5416841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks48c292,717$141,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,965.0172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers51c286,479$146,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,104.587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Cavaliers51c250,000$127,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,499.9615545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers51c226,090$115,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,354.5269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Cavaliers52c80,000$41,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,60014538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Cavaliers51c54,197$27,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,640.371241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Cavaliers51c43,443$22,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,156.0626753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers52c23,975$12,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,356.884,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Cavaliers52c20,500$10,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,66010248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Cavaliers51c20,298$10,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,352.1714842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks48c20,119$9,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,46218651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd62…ee89backed Knicks50c19,616$9,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,807.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks49c15,124$7,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,713.2485742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Cavaliers42c14,443$6,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,020.425940.7%24 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Knicks49c14,148$6,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,201.6684443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Cavaliers52c13,975$7,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,266.9438143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Knicks49c10,417$5,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,312.497342.5%31 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Cavaliers52c10,336$5,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,369.8232351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Knicks49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.0811654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Knicks49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers51c9,783$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Cavaliers52c9,055$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,685.782045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers52c7,224$3,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,756.511,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Cavaliers52c6,800$3,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,53610949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Cavaliers50c6,790$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.7612251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers51c6,402$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.861,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Knicks70c6,158$4,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.9819246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Knicks50c5,946$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.23847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Cavaliers24c5,595$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.6362144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers50c5,067$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.3855251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Cavaliers52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60025352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Knicks49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,55010553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Cavaliers52c4,923$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,56020155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers51c4,902$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Cavaliers48c4,532$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.722441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Cavaliers44c4,520$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.5264948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers51c4,340$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.441,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Cavaliers52c4,300$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23612056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4852…67c4backed Knicks50c4,180$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.125655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…a1c5backed Cavaliers50c3,869$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.522142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d16…212ebacked Cavaliers52c3,782$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.811764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Cavaliers50c3,519$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.636556.9%37 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Knicks61c3,192$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.2530551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Knicks49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2240451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Cavaliers52c3,021$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.0618444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Cavaliers51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53017247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Knicks50c3,000$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.9910248%49 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Knicks49c2,898$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.9611440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f9…ad24backed Knicks49c2,526$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.24452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Cavaliers52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63ed…b0f4backed Cavaliers29c2,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.992339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked Cavaliers35c2,467$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.0411946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Knicks50c2,291$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.4565045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks48c2,223$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.876,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Knicks49c2,200$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12223742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00011759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Cavaliers52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Cavaliers52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0406266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Knicks49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Cavaliers51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.967143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x59ce…d001backed Cavaliers51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Cavaliers52c1,931$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.358848.9%43 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc920…7914backed Knicks49c1,916$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.338648.8%42 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87c…afd7backed Cavaliers52c1,909$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Knicks49c1,700$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.9986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Knicks49c1,617$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.867349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Knicks49c1,561$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.061,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Knicks50c1,507$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.519745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Cavaliers1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15420%0 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b43…c5cbbacked Knicks49c1,445$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1fa…9c2cbacked Knicks50c1,428$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Knicks48c1,330$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.4610138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Knicks49c1,310$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.398846.6%41 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Cavaliers51c1,264$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.641,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Cavaliers50c1,200$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59411757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Knicks48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.9987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers50c1,172$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.991,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…519dbacked Cavaliers34c1,132$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.394161%25 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers22c1,104$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Cavaliers52c1,048$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.211435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Cavaliers52c1,015$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.868744.8%39 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Cavaliers52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Cavaliers51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51020057%114 W · 86 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Cavaliers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101236.5%8 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-89.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Cavaliers51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51035049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Cavaliers51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Cavaliers51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51025550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Cavaliers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10981%1 W · 97 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8d…edbebacked Knicks50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Knicks65c999.84$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9436453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Knicks50c990$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49516946.7%79 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Cavaliers52c965.38$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5027753.2%41 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Cavaliers52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023251.7%120 W · 112 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Cavaliers52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50021152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2063…d38fbacked Cavaliers52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Cavaliers52c960$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.23948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1788…0994backed Cavaliers52c960$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.21225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.