TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,149,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,322,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,149,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,445 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes59c76,420$45,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,012.361010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-83.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e0…fb31backed Yes39c53,330$20,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,477.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes58c50,121$29,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,097.071275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes55c36,828$20,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,407.822236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes57c35,000$20,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,982.372857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes47c33,000$15,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,438.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8c…aef9backed No0c30,150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d44…6fbabacked No61c27,495$16,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,744.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x592e…6b06backed No61c26,007$15,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,838.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9f…4a19backed Yes56c25,847$14,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,283.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No53c25,754$13,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,560.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed No44c24,264$10,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,779333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No38c23,831$8,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9587252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Yes54c23,042$12,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,671.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Yes61c22,301$13,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,695.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes57c22,179$12,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,475.1817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes51c21,810$11,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,637.641968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No39c20,260$7,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,847.230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a9d…2bedbacked Yes60c19,539$11,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,862.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339f…06fcbacked Yes53c19,138$10,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,081.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No40c17,875$7,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,105.455612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed No41c17,746$7,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,290.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Yes61c17,428$10,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,802.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38dc…d86cbacked No0c16,950$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0584…de3ebacked Yes59c16,950$9,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac89…d589backed No0c16,760$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No64c16,228$10,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,384.284233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3722…1f0abacked Yes50c15,422$7,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,721.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No39c15,018$5,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,883.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3217…6895backed Yes66c14,944$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,143.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No22c14,033$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,122.951315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No33c13,589$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,440.27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c13,466$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,278.94258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes55c12,938$7,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,774.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No38c12,716$4,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,819.1616350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes50c12,252$6,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,138.354148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes25c12,095$3,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,031.6717821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc199…c67cbacked Yes44c11,073$4,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,171.291323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-61%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe557…a3f1backed No38c11,056$4,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.65911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e8…c80cbacked No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes43c10,985$4,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,220.265324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes75c10,069$7,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,566.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6431…ab69backed Yes55c10,007$5,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,524.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf62c…0195backed No65c9,974$6,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,452.320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No56c9,666$5,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,391.333138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes54c9,648$5,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,438.542045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6095…b9fbbacked No54c9,316$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No48c9,092$4,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,322.6829926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes5c9,089$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,595.773420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes35c8,922$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,786.591936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No41c8,511$3,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,511.43938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8aa…3686backed Yes59c8,504$4,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,529.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No45c8,500$3,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,785.962937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c8,487$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,212.11,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87d2…efb2backed Yes61c8,453$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,293.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes57c8,293$4,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,605.262152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6bd…8b3fbacked Yes59c8,236$4,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Yes64c8,096$5,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cca…a8cdbacked Yes62c8,042$5,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes60c7,965$4,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,197.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes55c7,862$4,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.1850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes44c7,833$3,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,407.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b6…c144backed Yes1c7,120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,034.561100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+8,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7f…90ecbacked Yes1c7,120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,034.561100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+8,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe44…c279backed Yes50c7,000$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No49c6,712$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.851643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No39c6,361$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.431020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75a8…814abacked Yes60c6,303$3,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked Yes56c6,083$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.96825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked Yes60c6,000$3,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes42c5,983$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,480.572222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes51c5,932$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,917.351637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No44c5,808$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.2523041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes3c5,507$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,346.471921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+106.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213d…885dbacked No50c5,184$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x335a…a156backed Yes1c5,075$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,034.41100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+12,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5218…ba82backed Yes1c5,075$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,034.41100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+12,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes59c5,051$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Yes66c5,038$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.591030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661b…17babacked Yes60c5,023$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes60c5,000$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.8715059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes59c5,000$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c4,928$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.1936538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes55c4,840$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.331625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes60c4,815$2,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.811717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0b…35c8backed Yes53c4,748$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6c…69b7backed Yes52c4,500$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed No1c4,487$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d79…268fbacked Yes54c4,404$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.371315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes57c4,386$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.054250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c4,324$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,040.21549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes59c4,314$2,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.661526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd659…fe07backed Yes57c4,290$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce12…0e76backed No63c3,990$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes39c3,936$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.681060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d73…beddbacked Yes47c3,912$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0d…8125backed Yes53c3,813$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No38c3,810$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.535234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce2…231dbacked No50c3,799$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed Yes32c3,798$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.