TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$111,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost-$22504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c9,521$48 inLost-$47.86258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa55c…cae9backed Yes2c8,688$200 inLost-$200156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-74.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c5,895$27 inLost-$27.31114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,840$37 inLost-$37.461,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes1c4,324$64 inLost-$64.1270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c2…0dd8backed Yes1c3,990$20 inLost-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes4c2,852$114 inLost-$114.0950633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes0c2,829$12 inLost-$12.4217821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd35c…99abbacked Yes2c2,666$45 inLost-$45540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick7cpaid+1,310.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32f9…dd7ebacked Yes1c2,068$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a6…97f8backed Yes1c2,010$12 inLost-$12.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+94.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff1…0f45backed Yes1c1,639$12 inLost-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c1,626$15 inLost-$14.94901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,594$13 inLost-$13.42781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c1,250$17 inLost-$17.15324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes4c1,007$36 inLost-$36.341947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$301723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes2c999.99$18 inLost-$185710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c587.79$10 inLost-$10.2217010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Yes4c565.02$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick7cpaid+974.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes4c500$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+124.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2255…65d8backed Yes3c465$13 inLost-$13.491533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes4c360$13 inLost-$12.64136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c300$12 inLost-$1216237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes5c281$15 inLost-$14.584112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.