Movies · resolved market
Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15b54a29d9cadfc249c0b97071173b87e78648a748f3252bc8c92c2207a6e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,099$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…bf5dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,100$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 8,712$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,990$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…6358backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…d076backed Yes | 1c | 6,027$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2488backed Yes | 1c | 6,011$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Yes | 0c | 5,987$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…c593backed Yes | 3c | 5,622$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 4,253$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,040$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 2,922$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.44 | 509 | 33.2%169 W · 340 L | -31.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,373$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…eeddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,301$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…ad5ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,328$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 1c | 1,128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…4e59backed Yes | 2c | 1,064$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,061$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…6bd8backed Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 5c | 616.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…e505backed Yes | 9c | 507.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…ed0fbacked Yes | 5c | 475.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 5c | 463$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…7e61backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 9c | 360$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 350$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…92e2backed Yes | 3c | 337.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…65d8backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…118dbacked Yes | 10c | 210.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…1dc8backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…39a0backed Yes | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will George Clooney win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.