Movies · resolved market
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53502cc288507264787a4d2e5c951b21bb08946fa7850e57974c47abb970280d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $977,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $977,099 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 88,379$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.96 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 82,924$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.41 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 1c | 69,082$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes | 1c | 40,483$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.64 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821b…d619backed Yes | 1c | 35,012$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 1c | 29,538$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 1c | 27,122$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.91 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed Yes | 1c | 26,318$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 19,784$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.33 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…23a3backed Yes | 2c | 19,547$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…acbfbacked Yes | 1c | 18,066$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 1c | 17,398$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 4c | 17,364$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.84 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 2c | 16,367$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.35 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 1c | 14,908$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…62b0backed Yes | 1c | 13,391$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 2c | 12,030$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Yes | 2c | 10,872$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63e…0b80backed Yes | 1c | 10,795$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…cd9dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,795$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…1cc6backed Yes | 1c | 10,725$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…fe6dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,725$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…944dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,640$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 9,837$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.46 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5187…1c1ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,527$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 3c | 9,522$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.39 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,804$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 8,356$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 1c | 8,248$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 2c | 7,860$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.44 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked Yes | 3c | 7,540$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…1cedbacked Yes | 2c | 7,323$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 6,880$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes | 4c | 6,816$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 1c | 6,479$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,210$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 6,082$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 1c | 5,900$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…d384backed Yes | 3c | 5,865$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a6…7804backed Yes | 2c | 5,729$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 1c | 5,279$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 2c | 5,208$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…be2abacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,997$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…3ab6backed Yes | 5c | 4,969$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,883$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 2c | 4,859$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7562…4984backed Yes | 1c | 4,842$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 4,832$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…b2a1backed Yes | 2c | 4,760$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf14…e016backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…da39backed Yes | 2c | 4,656$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,429$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 2c | 4,356$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…9a86backed Yes | 1c | 4,347$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Yes | 2c | 4,288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 2c | 4,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 2c | 4,164$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…99abbacked Yes | 2c | 4,141$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +1,310.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 4,067$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Yes | 2c | 4,028$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed Yes | 2c | 3,890$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 8c | 3,886$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.91 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,805$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…005bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,660$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,558$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 1c | 3,443$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 1c | 3,373$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,371$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 1c | 3,348$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,302$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 3,233$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 2c | 3,210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 3,139$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 3c | 3,076$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…588abacked Yes | 3c | 2,944$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 7c | 2,914$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 2,908$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…4957backed Yes | 3c | 2,845$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,785$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,777$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…1768backed Yes | 2c | 2,702$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,645$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9d…c67cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,624$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…a743backed Yes | 3c | 2,605$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5946backed Yes | 1c | 2,530$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c063backed Yes | 4c | 2,463$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,435$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,428$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc137…9f40backed Yes | 1c | 2,395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…34ecbacked Yes | 3c | 2,349$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,306$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 2,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…c130backed Yes | 1c | 2,296$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…7ae2backed Yes | 1c | 2,251$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…b2b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,198$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…2736backed Yes | 1c | 2,192$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will George Clooney win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.