Movies · resolved market
Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb4d88b29c768dba1cab0446932692c2aa9a6bf9f4648ad7ebd35baf257f5ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,852$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…e562backed Yes | 1c | 7,075$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 6,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…7d6dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,989$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,644$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 1c | 3,912$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Yes | 0c | 3,479$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…3e6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,699$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 2c | 2,669$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,273$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 3c | 1,944$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,893$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 1c | 1,659$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 6c | 740$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…83a6backed Yes | 4c | 478.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 397.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will George Clooney win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.