TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,445,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,445,493 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd22…ad91backed Yes36c137,696$50,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,173.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f5…8d89backed Yes33c108,761$35,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,492.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No65c44,251$28,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,349.652236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes47c43,471$20,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,618.651926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes31c38,766$12,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,031.353043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes34c35,477$12,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,005.441010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-83.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes32c33,978$10,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,886.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes45c32,973$14,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,952.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No67c28,940$19,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,571.827252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No65c28,859$18,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,162.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes59c25,005$14,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,804.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+64.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2009…903ebacked Yes36c21,854$7,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,920742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes36c21,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,559.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes39c20,000$7,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,821.471513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No67c19,539$13,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,447.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No65c18,331$11,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,373.732222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No63c17,289$10,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,325.792152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Yes30c16,697$4,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,976.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes62c16,609$10,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,264.515059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1835…b828backed Yes31c16,129$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3722…1f0abacked Yes41c15,285$6,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,331450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Yes46c14,911$6,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,883.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7063…eb48backed Yes36c13,759$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e74…d4e5backed Yes32c13,141$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed Yes35c12,781$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,440.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No61c12,522$7,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,849.6823041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc035…5efbbacked Yes48c12,516$5,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,981.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No57c12,242$6,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,247.417136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed No37c11,303$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,117.954148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed No64c10,821$6,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No66c10,639$7,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,637.46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e39…4543backed Yes37c10,150$3,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d0…5a1ebacked No26c10,058$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,442.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes65c9,763$6,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,338.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked Yes35c9,644$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,387.17825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed No69c9,500$6,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked No66c9,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.941040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No51c8,895$4,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,394.4829926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725b…8016backed No66c8,490$5,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-49.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x327a…99bfbacked Yes36c8,236$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes2c8,223$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.66248.3%2 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes76c8,119$6,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,154250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No70c7,988$5,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.765612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes38c7,910$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes46c7,843$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,638.026520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf511…3f4abacked Yes32c7,380$2,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,361.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed Yes76c7,210$5,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,511.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No43c7,207$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,120.3515641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c7…5851backed Yes1c7,156$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…c279backed Yes37c7,000$2,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No41c6,828$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,009.773141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+77.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7897…4239backed Yes34c6,592$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78cd…450cbacked Yes33c6,592$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed No59c6,353$3,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes31c6,253$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.476732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes80c6,118$4,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,893.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes32c6,012$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes65c6,012$3,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,915.491936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes37c6,001$2,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.913938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No68c5,900$4,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.972937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0339…5b2cbacked No28c5,634$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,058.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No28c5,594$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.2433123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Yes73c5,543$4,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,04210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes71c5,474$3,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,859.31625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes32c5,451$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.151717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes62c5,435$3,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,376.642920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes59c5,372$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,174.439545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes52c5,286$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,763.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes63c5,279$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,346.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06d2…fb27backed No25c5,203$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+101.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab82…124abacked Yes76c5,197$3,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,949.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed Yes38c5,094$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.28263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae02…28fcbacked Yes33c5,034$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No63c5,000$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.951625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed No45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes69c5,000$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,464.982626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes77c5,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,849.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed No68c4,973$3,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No57c4,967$2,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes43c4,918$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.798330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked No46c4,857$2,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes54c4,820$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…fd4fbacked Yes65c4,773$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes38c4,752$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.481540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8543…e28abacked Yes30c4,730$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.991414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes37c4,469$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.78850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd3…588abacked No51c4,466$2,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.82425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…9962backed Yes33c4,426$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked No68c4,422$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes40c4,398$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.749434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No59c4,390$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5b…7796backed Yes35c4,380$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes77c4,359$3,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,371.660%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No68c4,281$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.915745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes60c4,202$2,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,523.5226041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No46c3,968$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.5824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617e…2b32backed No65c3,946$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked No33c3,935$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.