Movies · resolved market
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd185f10a7d0f07e733e02a6811fc2930fb7478166107669fe58bd7ba37aa9895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,445,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,445,493 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed Yes | 36c | 137,696$50,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,173.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…8d89backed Yes | 33c | 108,761$35,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,492.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 65c | 44,251$28,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,349.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 47c | 43,471$20,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,618.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 31c | 38,766$12,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,031.35 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 34c | 35,477$12,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,005.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 32c | 33,978$10,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,886.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 45c | 32,973$14,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,952.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 67c | 28,940$19,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,571.82 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 65c | 28,859$18,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,162.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 59c | 25,005$14,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,804.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…903ebacked Yes | 36c | 21,854$7,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,920 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…0a76backed Yes | 36c | 21,000$7,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,559.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 39c | 20,000$7,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,821.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked No | 67c | 19,539$13,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,447.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…3f2cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 65c | 18,331$11,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,373.73 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 63c | 17,289$10,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,325.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Yes | 30c | 16,697$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,976.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 62c | 16,609$10,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,264.5 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…b828backed Yes | 31c | 16,129$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Yes | 41c | 15,285$6,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,331 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…26fbbacked Yes | 46c | 14,911$6,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,883.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…eb48backed Yes | 36c | 13,759$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…d4e5backed Yes | 32c | 13,141$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,199.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed Yes | 35c | 12,781$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 12,522$7,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849.68 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc035…5efbbacked Yes | 48c | 12,516$5,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,981.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 57c | 12,242$6,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,247.41 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 37c | 11,303$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,117.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed No | 64c | 10,821$6,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,856.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 66c | 10,639$7,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,637.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…4543backed Yes | 37c | 10,150$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,741.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…5a1ebacked No | 26c | 10,058$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,442.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 65c | 9,763$6,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,338.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Yes | 35c | 9,644$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,387.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…8e25backed No | 69c | 9,500$6,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 66c | 9,000$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,099.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 51c | 8,895$4,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,394.48 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 66c | 8,490$5,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327a…99bfbacked Yes | 36c | 8,236$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 2c | 8,223$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Yes | 76c | 8,119$6,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,154 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 70c | 7,988$5,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.76 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 38c | 7,910$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 46c | 7,843$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.02 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…3f4abacked Yes | 32c | 7,380$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4b88backed Yes | 76c | 7,210$5,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,511.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 7,207$3,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,120.35 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…5851backed Yes | 1c | 7,156$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…c279backed Yes | 37c | 7,000$2,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,597.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked No | 41c | 6,828$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.77 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed Yes | 34c | 6,592$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78cd…450cbacked Yes | 33c | 6,592$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed No | 59c | 6,353$3,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 31c | 6,253$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.47 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes | 80c | 6,118$4,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,893.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 32c | 6,012$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 65c | 6,012$3,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,915.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 37c | 6,001$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.91 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 68c | 5,900$4,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.97 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked No | 28c | 5,634$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 28c | 5,594$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,031.24 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…1e77backed Yes | 73c | 5,543$4,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,042 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 71c | 5,474$3,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,859.3 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 32c | 5,451$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 62c | 5,435$3,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,376.64 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 59c | 5,372$3,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,174.43 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 52c | 5,286$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,763.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 63c | 5,279$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,346.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d2…fb27backed No | 25c | 5,203$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,910.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…124abacked Yes | 76c | 5,197$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,949.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 38c | 5,094$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.28 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…28fcbacked Yes | 33c | 5,034$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed No | 63c | 5,000$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 69c | 5,000$3,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,464.98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed No | 68c | 4,973$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 57c | 4,967$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 43c | 4,918$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.79 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked No | 46c | 4,857$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 54c | 4,820$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…fd4fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,773$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 38c | 4,752$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…e28abacked Yes | 30c | 4,730$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 37c | 4,469$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…588abacked No | 51c | 4,466$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…9962backed Yes | 33c | 4,426$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked No | 68c | 4,422$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 40c | 4,398$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.74 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 59c | 4,390$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 35c | 4,380$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Yes | 77c | 4,359$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,371.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 68c | 4,281$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.91 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 60c | 4,202$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,523.52 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 46c | 3,968$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.58 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617e…2b32backed No | 65c | 3,946$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 33c | 3,935$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will George Clooney win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.