TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,542,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,542,926 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 949 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c77,583$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.7983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1835…b828backed Yes3c68,965$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9b…811fbacked Yes0c68,177$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes7c61,194$4,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,588.381926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes6c40,745$2,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes5c36,220$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.745612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes11c35,714$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,823.41936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes6c27,040$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.792857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes5c25,801$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.572222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…5134backed Yes21c24,366$5,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,116.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes7c24,320$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.72248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef6…8183backed Yes20c21,961$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,392.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes6c21,807$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.425324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Yes6c20,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes5c18,999$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.152441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes8c18,393$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.786520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1864…e402backed Yes26c17,000$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,42010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yes9c14,024$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.2660%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes9c13,970$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.0917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c12,858$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.61455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c4…60f3backed Yes21c12,028$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes5c11,710$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.2319440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Yes5c11,154$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.141020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d79…268fbacked Yes6c9,372$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.331315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b9…0b21backed Yes5c9,247$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes7c8,990$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes8c8,390$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.313826.3%10 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c8,317$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes8c8,000$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.051921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+106.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes5c7,686$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.72195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-88.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Yes15c7,429$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d0…422fbacked Yes8c7,317$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.4280%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes5c7,110$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.63938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5887…b2a1backed Yes3c6,706$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ab…e2b2backed No79c6,600$5,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3862100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes5c6,585$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.891010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-83.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes6c6,558$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4151050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99e7…005bbacked Yes5c6,481$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…55d6backed No79c6,316$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0e…84d7backed No80c6,180$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f6…fdf7backed No79c6,100$4,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ec…80c8backed No74c6,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes8c5,825$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.49744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf880…135dbacked Yes14c5,788$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x536e…2680backed No74c5,700$4,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27e…502bbacked No80c5,585$4,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8421…771abacked No79c5,350$4,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca3…2be0backed No80c5,346$4,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8b…1b12backed No74c5,300$3,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93c…d454backed Yes5c5,270$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes9c5,246$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.652937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…048abacked Yes6c4,895$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes9c4,863$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.1129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7c…2efdbacked No80c4,850$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9702100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed Yes5c4,637$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.71625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes4c4,539$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.812718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes9c4,500$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6233123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes7c4,178$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x433d…a85abacked Yes5c4,170$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02a…9788backed Yes4c4,083$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9683…f72abacked Yes4c4,083$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes6c4,000$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2441315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c3,968$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.892013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes14c3,964$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.596229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked Yes5c3,897$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes13c3,810$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes16c3,797$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.683420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes6c3,750$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.492123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes17c3,704$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.7114015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eac…140abacked Yes10c3,703$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes9c3,654$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.726222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57d…c0ffbacked Yes17c3,625$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6c…d024backed Yes4c3,595$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes4c3,591$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8612938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes6c3,540$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.046917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c3,532$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.761231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6262…1d8fbacked Yes4c3,526$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb23e…5286backed Yes4c3,526$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc14b…0d90backed Yes22c3,488$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes7c3,456$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.263125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes15c3,447$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.22920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad2…e6a7backed Yes15c3,320$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes6c3,305$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.96390%0 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa156…014cbacked No79c3,270$2,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes7c3,233$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.875151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c3,232$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.512042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d7…5946backed Yes6c3,205$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-64.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe4a…b75abacked Yes5c3,137$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c31…6723backed No79c3,038$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf574…5e3ebacked No79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d9…870ebacked Yes17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.991118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid+50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes7c3,000$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.992152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes2c2,967$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.031540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes4c2,966$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed Yes7c2,900$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes5c2,823$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes4c2,750$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6857…9321backed Yes6c2,737$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+287.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.