Movies · resolved market
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5178aec93c1c06f5f2f9bacc30391f37c87dac5fac060ab44c775cf2915b9fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,542,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,542,926 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 949 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 77,583$3,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,342.7 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1835…b828backed Yes | 3c | 68,965$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…811fbacked Yes | 0c | 68,177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 7c | 61,194$4,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,588.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 6c | 40,745$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 5c | 36,220$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.74 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 11c | 35,714$3,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,823.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 6c | 27,040$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.79 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 5c | 25,801$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.57 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…5134backed Yes | 21c | 24,366$5,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,116.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 7c | 24,320$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.72 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…8183backed Yes | 20c | 21,961$4,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,392.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 21,807$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.42 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 5c | 18,999$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 8c | 18,393$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.78 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1864…e402backed Yes | 26c | 17,000$4,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Yes | 9c | 14,024$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 9c | 13,970$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.09 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 12,858$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c4…60f3backed Yes | 21c | 12,028$2,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 5c | 11,710$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.23 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 5c | 11,154$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 6c | 9,372$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…0b21backed Yes | 5c | 9,247$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,990$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,390$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.31 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 8,317$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,000$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.05 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 5c | 7,686$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.72 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Yes | 15c | 7,429$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…422fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,317$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,110$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…b2a1backed Yes | 3c | 6,706$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…e2b2backed No | 79c | 6,600$5,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 5c | 6,585$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes | 6c | 6,558$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…005bbacked Yes | 5c | 6,481$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…55d6backed No | 79c | 6,316$4,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…84d7backed No | 80c | 6,180$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…fdf7backed No | 79c | 6,100$4,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ec…80c8backed No | 74c | 6,000$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 8c | 5,825$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.49 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…135dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,788$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…2680backed No | 74c | 5,700$4,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27e…502bbacked No | 80c | 5,585$4,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…771abacked No | 79c | 5,350$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…2be0backed No | 80c | 5,346$4,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…1b12backed No | 74c | 5,300$3,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…d454backed Yes | 5c | 5,270$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,246$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.65 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…048abacked Yes | 6c | 4,895$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 9c | 4,863$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.11 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…2efdbacked No | 80c | 4,850$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Yes | 5c | 4,637$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,539$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 9c | 4,500$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.62 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes | 7c | 4,178$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked Yes | 5c | 4,170$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…9788backed Yes | 4c | 4,083$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…f72abacked Yes | 4c | 4,083$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 3,968$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.89 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 14c | 3,964$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.59 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…ccafbacked Yes | 5c | 3,897$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158d…9c64backed Yes | 13c | 3,810$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,797$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.68 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,750$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 3,704$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.71 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 10c | 3,703$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,654$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.72 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…c0ffbacked Yes | 17c | 3,625$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6c…d024backed Yes | 4c | 3,595$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 4c | 3,591$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 3,540$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.04 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 3,532$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.76 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…1d8fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,526$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…5286backed Yes | 4c | 3,526$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…0d90backed Yes | 22c | 3,488$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 7c | 3,456$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.26 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 15c | 3,447$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.2 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad2…e6a7backed Yes | 15c | 3,320$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,305$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…014cbacked No | 79c | 3,270$2,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 7c | 3,233$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 3,232$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5946backed Yes | 6c | 3,205$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4a…b75abacked Yes | 5c | 3,137$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…6723backed No | 79c | 3,038$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…5e3ebacked No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…870ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,967$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,966$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed Yes | 7c | 2,900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 5c | 2,823$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,750$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…9321backed Yes | 6c | 2,737$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +287.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Brendan Fraser win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Channing Tatum win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Daniel Day-Lewis win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will George Clooney win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hugh Jackman win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jeremy Allen White win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.