TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36fe…3ab1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+298.2%+$74.62
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$36.97
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.43
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+300%+$75
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$101.14
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$185
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$63.19
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.75
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$267.59
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$19.23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$95
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$43
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$55.34
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$128.59
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+70.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.28
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$360
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$72
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.8
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$48
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+153.6%+$423.99
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$674Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+48.4%+$326
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+334.8%+$308
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+124.7%+$222
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$160
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$73.33
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$78
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.4
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$144
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.46
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$27.94
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$22.9
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,673Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,672.78
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$4,360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$3,502.1
All 8 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-71.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked Santa Clara Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.