Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd9325e532b5e15ed51b5f9dc0fb673fb3f008471241a78476ce28de0b3dde7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 2,964$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.75 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 73c | 2,820$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 75c | 2,085$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.92 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 28c | 2,017$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed No | 63c | 1,737$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 41c | 1,308$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 68c | 1,274$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,210$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 1,205$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.19 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 72c | 1,134$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,131$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 68c | 1,013$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.63 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 27c | 964$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 27c | 940$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 27c | 916$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 37c | 897$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 37c | 840$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 72c | 811$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 790$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 37c | 783$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 63c | 783$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 780.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 23c | 763$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 77c | 763$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 59c | 658$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 59c | 650$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 32c | 640$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes | 32c | 634$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 63c | 601$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +364%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 600$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 63c | 530$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 72c | 526$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 513.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…69debacked Yes | 7c | 485.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed No | 68c | 444.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 28c | 439$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 5c | 437.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…2769backed Yes | 27c | 419.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 68c | 389$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 28c | 372$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 72c | 357$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x957b…fee8backed Yes | 39c | 253.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 38c | 209.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 36c | 206.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 32c | 192$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 177.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 31c | 163.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 139.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…e45abacked No | 79c | 119$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 114.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed Yes | 31c | 114.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…fdf7backed Yes | 42c | 105.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7f…3f90backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 26c | 99.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 73c | 89.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 83.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 61c | 79.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 54c | 78.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 48c | 78.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 45c | 64.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 80c | 62.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 58c | 62.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…7c03backed Yes | 27c | 57.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c6…8390backed No | 78c | 55.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…7135backed Yes | 29c | 50.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 67c | 49.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 26c | 40.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 46c | 35.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 34.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…b702backed No | 78c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 65c | 26.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa0…6696backed No | 74c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 59c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.