Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b07f4fa02263c8d93c220e006b26b7e072c1ac54597ac5be6e4aab052927ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 16c | 2,975$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 19c | 2,947$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,826$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 2,224$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.44 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 12c | 1,681$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 16c | 1,469$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +266.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed Yes | 22c | 1,339$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,215$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 19c | 905$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 19c | 557$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 17c | 517.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 19c | 513$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed No | 79c | 508.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 74c | 485.13$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 16c | 464$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…2359backed Yes | 16c | 450$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 78c | 449.75$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 7c | 311.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 301$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 41c | 261.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 18c | 243.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 5c | 202$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 159.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 152.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 151.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 147.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 17c | 139$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 11c | 134.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 17c | 133$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 20c | 113.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 78c | 90.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed Yes | 41c | 73.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 58.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d00…b0c2backed Yes | 26c | 57.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +224%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed No | 73c | 54.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…49bdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…e0f9backed Yes | 37c | 42.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 55c | 37.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 39c | 27.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 75c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 68c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.