Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089088fca7abba25c9d5ef3b4801a5d7f159bbd240c534da3698da1da0f2030b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,900$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 20c | 1,515$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 20c | 1,453$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 80c | 1,051$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,026$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 80c | 996$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 80c | 921$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 805.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 19c | 595$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 79c | 490.07$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 26c | 299.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 4c | 296.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 23c | 267$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 250.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed No | 73c | 240$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 238.39$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 76c | 214$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 80c | 180.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 77c | 141$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +242.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 138.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 77c | 126$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 27c | 122$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04af…9a07backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 88.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 74c | 86.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 78c | 74.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 14c | 71.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 21c | 67.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 73c | 60.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed No | 76c | 57.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 79c | 55.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 55c | 44.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 26.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 70c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 74c | 19.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc9…8355backed No | 75c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.