Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57ae5837e3900362a24a8d9759305aae5fe5f25603fb7fcf6775427d7d291e90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 30c | 2,874$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 22c | 2,514$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 78c | 1,946$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 78c | 1,541$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 22c | 1,504$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,391$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.1 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 22c | 1,331$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 78c | 1,222$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 60c | 1,058$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 55c | 1,005$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.72 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 60c | 1,002$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 74c | 975$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 22c | 975$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 79c | 913.54$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 74c | 912$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 78c | 908$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 11c | 887$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 78c | 871$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 78c | 823$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 776$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 40c | 771$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 78c | 759$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 22c | 759$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 78c | 733.17$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 22c | 731$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked No | 74c | 730$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 22c | 695$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 74c | 669$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 638.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 78c | 615$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed No | 74c | 608$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 79c | 591.11$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed Yes | 31c | 591$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 69c | 591$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 29c | 589.14$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 75c | 518.41$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked Yes | 26c | 516$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 3c | 501.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 11c | 490$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 30c | 398.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 78c | 389$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 30c | 360.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 347.1$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 68c | 309.68$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 309$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 26c | 306$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 26c | 303$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 33c | 284.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 273.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 60c | 259$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 21c | 238.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 34c | 227.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 211.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 199.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 29c | 195.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 192.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 17c | 184$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 8c | 170.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 65c | 151.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 34c | 148.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 35c | 143.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 21c | 143.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 137.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 25c | 136.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 33c | 134.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 65c | 91.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 24c | 86.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 83.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 70.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…45fbbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 27c | 67.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 66.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -52%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…53b2backed Yes | 33c | 60.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 30c | 52.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 64c | 51.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 26c | 49.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 30c | 48.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 65c | 47.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 46.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 30c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 67c | 45.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…e56dbacked Yes | 23c | 44.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…ddbcbacked Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 40.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.