Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b241d9921d31de05f282846afd93fd4c891fa8091fecc482dd15e84a45e3c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 740.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 12c | 700.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 539.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 531.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 76c | 520$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…4e71backed Yes | 8c | 477.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa630…2359backed Yes | 8c | 450$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 80c | 423.02$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 4c | 295.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 24c | 261$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 24c | 259$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 246.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 8c | 213$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 188$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 155.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…7b91backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 91.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 25c | 90.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 68c | 20.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 74c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.