Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf245f51ee0cb5020ffc948b2e63d86ca112c2691665a043a2e139f0c9d4d1f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,277$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 2,155$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.74 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 78c | 1,973$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 26c | 1,758$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 70c | 1,380$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 26c | 1,077$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,077$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 22c | 1,012$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 74c | 985$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 74c | 976$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 26c | 974$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 26c | 962$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 22c | 961$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 26c | 960$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 78c | 949.92$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.35 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 74c | 942$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 74c | 935$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 74c | 926$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 67c | 881$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +252.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 26c | 830$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 824.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 41c | 818$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 26c | 809$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 67c | 809$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 78c | 686$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 15c | 631.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 67c | 587$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 22c | 570$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed No | 74c | 559$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 22c | 549$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 74c | 548$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +243.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 74c | 532$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 529.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 78c | 517$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 22c | 516$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 513.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 22c | 513$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 78c | 496$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 78c | 494$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 22c | 485$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 59c | 405$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 79c | 381.6$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 26c | 380.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 78c | 375$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 16c | 304.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 79c | 266.34$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 76c | 214.28$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 22c | 173$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 154.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed Yes | 23c | 154$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 77c | 152$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 150.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 78c | 146$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 16c | 141.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 78c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 109.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 103.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 98.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 19c | 93.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 61c | 64.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 22c | 51.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 71c | 48.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 40c | 27.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa0…6696backed No | 77c | 16.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 79c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.