Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bef807e978da71d28edc0531e88d3785f1b8b2e1bc4a0f9d052fa155acdf901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 36c | 1,568$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,529$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 36c | 1,327$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 13c | 852$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 64c | 788$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 13c | 782$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 64c | 780$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 13c | 753$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 703.13$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 64c | 694$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 13c | 685$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 19c | 641$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 64c | 633$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 13c | 612$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 19c | 572$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 13c | 570$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 13c | 562$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 71c | 439.3$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 13c | 422$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 255$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 14c | 229$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 12c | 215$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 78c | 207.91$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 22c | 185.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes | 22c | 171.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 15c | 153$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 22c | 124$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 20c | 106$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…711cbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…7b91backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 91.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 66c | 90.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…0407backed Yes | 23c | 88.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 32c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 71.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 33c | 60.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 25c | 48.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 68c | 30.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 66c | 25.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.