Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x076515957ef9ff4fea74bed263b110a79271abbce3c36fbd2e395ff13182a5cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 56c | 1,756$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 29c | 1,373$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.8 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 44c | 1,310$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 1,020$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.44per pick | 18cpaid | +296.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 77c | 999.99$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 752$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…0818backed No | 14c | 704.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 15c | 643.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 57c | 545.11$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.36 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 9c | 471.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed Yes | 44c | 446$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…df5abacked No | 13c | 434.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 42c | 412.57$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.64 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 380$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 79c | 348.7$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.69 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 23c | 341.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.9 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…5912backed No | 14c | 311.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 8c | 262.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked No | 15c | 244.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 235.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 21c | 231.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 21c | 231.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.74 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 65c | 208.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e32…ca1abacked No | 8c | 208.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 202$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…6707backed No | 14c | 181.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 164.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 154.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 22c | 154.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 25c | 148$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 139.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 137.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 66c | 137.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…df66backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…f6b0backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 119.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 11c | 115.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed Yes | 20c | 101.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 76c | 101.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 11c | 101.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 12c | 95.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…8933backed No | 15c | 94.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 44c | 91.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 22c | 84.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…3dd6backed No | 17c | 83.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 23c | 76.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…2769backed Yes | 78c | 75.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 78c | 58.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 49.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…3163backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 77c | 28.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…5ea4backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 80c | 26.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa0…6696backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…60cdbacked Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9ad2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.