Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14d4b7687586f20713394670dd33875138c1b8107f62f54a6b3869c7d1b1c861
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 39c | 2,687$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 2,131$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.38 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 30c | 1,852$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 77c | 1,681$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,443$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 33c | 1,302$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 67c | 1,154$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.49 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 74c | 1,056$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed Yes | 23c | 1,045$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 67c | 935$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 61c | 904$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 61c | 903.1$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 29c | 903$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 74c | 895$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 61c | 867$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 4c | 779.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 74c | 762.28$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.65 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 56c | 732$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 70c | 727$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +250.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 56c | 711$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +236%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 31c | 700.48$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.55 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 26c | 693$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 70c | 682$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 78c | 681$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes | 22c | 681$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked No | 70c | 654$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 26c | 630$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 26c | 628$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 30c | 616$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 8c | 607.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 67c | 600$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 23c | 584$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 23c | 576$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed Yes | 23c | 521$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 74c | 499.99$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 71c | 465$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 33c | 443$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 70c | 443$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 71c | 438$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 416.96$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 971 | 40.3%391 W · 580 L | -73.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 71c | 382.61$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 67c | 367$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +252.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 33c | 352$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 30c | 335$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 72c | 329$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 77c | 323$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 30c | 319$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 297.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 64c | 294.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 68c | 279.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 277.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 63c | 250$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 67c | 245$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 241.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 44c | 218.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 212.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 6c | 209.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 205.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 1,044 | 9.2%96 W · 948 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 193.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 150 | 30%45 W · 105 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 7c | 187.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed No | 65c | 186.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 77c | 185$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 24c | 178.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 79c | 164$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 151.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 1,083 | 35%379 W · 704 L | -94.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbd…c645backed No | 71c | 141.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 33c | 127.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 71c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 118.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 34c | 111.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 29c | 103.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed No | 68c | 102.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 101.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 52c | 96.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 71.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 243 | 25.9%63 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 65.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…1351backed Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 76c | 52.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 50.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 57c | 47.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 47.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…82bdbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 37c | 42.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 363 | 34.4%125 W · 238 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 69c | 38.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.