Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fb597e0ca7f669ae283786b87ca5ea6790f51c0669f058a19f0b4d30b857c56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 7,011$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,002$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 1,664$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed No | 6c | 1,639$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 1,607$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.23 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 70c | 1,488$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 64c | 1,438$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 4c | 1,397$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 1,362$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,352$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 55c | 1,335$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…07ecbacked No | 4c | 1,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 10c | 1,199$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa0…6696backed No | 4c | 920.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 36c | 887$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked Yes | 30c | 770$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 33c | 722$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 30c | 718$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 67c | 689$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 67c | 684$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 33c | 651$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 7c | 650$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 3c | 622.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb369…b6e7backed No | 11c | 561.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 31c | 559.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.87 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 36c | 552$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 524.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.77 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 523.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 481.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 70c | 447.99$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 29c | 442.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 400$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 376.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 9c | 351.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed No | 10c | 348$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 37c | 343.86$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 16c | 340.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 299.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 67c | 260$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 247.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 231.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…1351backed Yes | 33c | 210.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 207.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 176.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 29c | 173.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…402ebacked No | 17c | 96.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 68c | 87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 27c | 78.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 54c | 59.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 27c | 40.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 66c | 40.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?this page
- Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Burj Khalifa by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by April 30?No won
- Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.