TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc450…a5b8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Commodities, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 58 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+304.3%+$803.06
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.77
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.71
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Will Noah Wyle win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$79.83
Will Erin Doherty win Best Actress in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+284.6%+$444
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$32.45
Will Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy win Best Producer of a TV Movie at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$536.27
Will Rich Russo - Super Bowl LIX - Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs win Best Director for Sports at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+354.5%+$283.92
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+257.1%+$586.08
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$100.54
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+92.3%+$495.36
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+257.1%+$434.88
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$80.62
Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$127.28
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.13
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.8
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.82
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$383.19
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$380.16
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+150%+$301.2
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$81.83
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$667.09
Will the New Orleans Pelicans have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.25
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+156.4%+$76.25
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$243.44
Will CJ McCollum be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$176
All 12 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.14
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$671Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+80.8%+$542.22
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$115.6
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$101.92
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 70 and 80?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$151.41
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$16.94
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$61.16
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$52.2
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+334.8%+$628.32
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$176.5
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,019Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.8%+$324.52
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$354
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.44
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+212.5%+$246.16
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$541.07
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.81
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$154.35
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.9%+$101.08
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$152.32
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$318.28
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$217
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+170.3%+$342.09
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+26.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.17
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$174.33
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$927.95
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$323.28
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+316.7%+$51.68
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$540.36
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$232.99
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+236%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+269%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$49.39
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+334.8%+$56.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Evansville Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.62
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$206.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$184.8
Dundee United FC vs. Aberdeen FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$366.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+83.8%+$468.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61.3%+$73.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+56.3%+$9
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$101.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$201.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vitality Dominates HLTV Awards Parlay backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$344.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$751.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ignacio Bahamondes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.