NFL · resolved market
Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb5318d2d59e21d23f41fed812400ebdcf9f0b43e92c946a1a38664793b18187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 57c | 1,318$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 44c | 1,103$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 57c | 1,087$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 57c | 975$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 56c | 845$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 65c | 772.19$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 43c | 609$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 43c | 586$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 43c | 490$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 43c | 438$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 43c | 434$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 35c | 407.28$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.94 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 44c | 406$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 56c | 406$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed No | 43c | 394$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 56c | 391$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 44c | 391$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 43c | 366$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b0f6backed No | 53c | 307.29$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed No | 34c | 291.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.43 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 56c | 258$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35c…8b37backed Yes | 38c | 213.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…7d86backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc523…9615backed Yes | 58c | 173.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…97cebacked No | 62c | 160.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…f516backed Yes | 64c | 156.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 37c | 107.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed Yes | 47c | 103.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…8b8cbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 32c | 94.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 33c | 93.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…527bbacked No | 43c | 85.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 33c | 79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…7c7dbacked Yes | 47c | 74.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked No | 35c | 71.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +174.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 66.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 43c | 63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 75c | 59.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…5f42backed Yes | 68c | 59.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…e18bbacked Yes | 46c | 56.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 67c | 52.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed No | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…6d36backed Yes | 34c | 48.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2054…d6f5backed Yes | 44c | 45.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…6b46backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 45c | 38.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…6ac6backed Yes | 63c | 31.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 52c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…30dbbacked No | 41c | 24.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…d08abacked No | 55c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…4183backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b69…378cbacked Yes | 66c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…274bbacked Yes | 66c | 18.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…9af7backed Yes | 67c | 16.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.