NFL · resolved market
Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ffd0e8ee857500e87487d50dabbb43e9a4bbe42cc53468bdfbdf11d90348d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 58c | 1,451$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 13c | 1,324$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 58c | 860$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 42c | 781$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 12c | 715$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 13c | 704$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 12c | 609$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 12c | 495$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 12c | 475$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…37fabacked Yes | 44c | 460.75$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 42c | 456$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 42c | 432$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 42c | 428$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 12c | 407$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 12c | 356$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 12c | 329$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 52c | 317.09$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 13c | 283$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 13c | 247$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 42c | 214$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…5ee4backed Yes | 50c | 194.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 59c | 170.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 49c | 89.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…4020backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 39c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3072…9a88backed Yes | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…de5abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked No | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 33.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 29.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…aff7backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked No | 69c | 26.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Yes | 70c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.