NFL · resolved market
Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f394092c568dfa018743d2b21efb4adf84a64b94631e0ff7283dbebaff4bfd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 32c | 1,348$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 32c | 1,307$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 68c | 1,074$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 32c | 838$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 68c | 775$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 32c | 703$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 68c | 622$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 32c | 573$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked No | 68c | 529$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 68c | 475$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 32c | 455$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 68c | 455$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed No | 68c | 381$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 32c | 339$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 68c | 339$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 68c | 338$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 32c | 266$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 68c | 266$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 68c | 258$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 32c | 258$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 68c | 192$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed No | 68c | 192$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 41cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 181.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 68c | 81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…d384backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 58c | 17.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.