NFL · resolved market
Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x681d3a3047f9be426ece6bb54f17a3e5da60535fa01b42920837bf32d46c8169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed No | 2c | 10,496$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…dff5backed No | 3c | 1,386$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 1c | 1,266$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 79c | 1,071$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 79c | 975$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 19c | 884$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 21c | 558$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 21c | 399$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 21c | 395$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…c15cbacked No | 15c | 273.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 6c | 266.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 17c | 228$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 5c | 214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3d7abacked No | 11c | 187.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…81b5backed No | 9c | 129.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.