TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,169 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7430…3af2backed No4c1,330$54 inLost-$53.544645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed No3c1,198$34 inLost-$349744.3%43 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x051f…66b0backed No4c1,120$50 inLost-$501020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No5c997.9$46 inLost-$45.952934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb1…6de8backed No18c971$175 inLost-$174.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf1dc…3ff6backed No3c801$21 inLost-$2140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7410…ad32backed No19c774$147 inLost-$147.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3810…daeebacked No6c766.64$50 inLost-$49.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No2c681.14$14 inLost-$13.836124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c657$15 inLost-$14.718213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No4c615.59$24 inLost-$24.1210731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2054…d6f5backed No4c493.74$20 inLost-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed No18c373$67 inLost-$67.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed6…1249backed No11c368.33$40 inLost-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed No18c345$62 inLost-$62.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1181…9e90backed No3c340$10 inLost-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9d…527bbacked No3c334$10 inLost-$102147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed No18c287$52 inLost-$51.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed No18c264$48 inLost-$47.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41c…b8b6backed No5c250.68$12 inLost-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No19c93$18 inLost-$17.671040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes55c30.86$17 inWon+$141735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.