NFL · resolved market
Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fd4946782234399e7452af8cc6a299e493f7818789bd71ca81cca9e09617542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 21c | 1,378$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 21c | 944$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed No | 79c | 924$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 60c | 878$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 60c | 845$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 60c | 833$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 40c | 823$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 49c | 797$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 60c | 786$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked Yes | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 40c | 689$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 60c | 670$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 62c | 622.82$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.19 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 79c | 620$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 60c | 618$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b0f6backed No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 40c | 584$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 21c | 559$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 21c | 552$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 79c | 518$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 79c | 494$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…b2f4backed No | 40c | 493$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 40c | 477$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed No | 79c | 476$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 21c | 476$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked No | 40c | 470$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 32c | 459.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…9176backed No | 36c | 422.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed No | 79c | 406$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 40c | 359$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 60c | 359$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 40c | 258$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 40c | 230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 40c | 202$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…4c9bbacked Yes | 70c | 194.13$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 33c | 181.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 40c | 177$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 40c | 156$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 79c | 147$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 40c | 141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 61c | 137$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 39c | 137$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 15c | 87.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…a193backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Yes | 70c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…8189backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 67c | 42.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…58f0backed No | 36c | 41.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…8663backed Yes | 65c | 39.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed No | 32c | 31.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…292fbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…7c7dbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…d32bbacked Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.