NFL · resolved market
Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x681b0fa4ab69c7b29b6641aefbc0052a4b417bad76102fb7f900038cc9382be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 36c | 1,492$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…1ebbbacked Yes | 69c | 751.31$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 37c | 451$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed No | 63c | 451$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 37c | 423$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 63c | 423$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 37c | 416$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 63c | 416$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes | 64c | 412$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 36c | 412$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 38c | 408$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 62c | 408$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 28c | 377.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.47 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 32c | 373$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 68c | 372$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 336.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 57c | 292.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.69 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 37c | 274$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 63c | 274$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7a8fbacked Yes | 65c | 273.1$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…7307backed No | 33c | 260.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +180.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 31c | 203.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 32c | 177.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…a8efbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 33c | 143.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c6…17fabacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed No | 20c | 127.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…0f1bbacked Yes | 75c | 122.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…3640backed Yes | 66c | 120.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…9d38backed No | 41c | 112.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 24c | 102.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…d0b7backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe34b…03a3backed Yes | 52c | 84.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…6888backed No | 36c | 83.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 44c | 81.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…ffd5backed No | 38c | 78.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b5…11a3backed No | 68c | 74.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7916backed No | 69c | 72.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 23c | 69.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 32c | 58.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…a891backed No | 44c | 57.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0504…9d2fbacked Yes | 70c | 55.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 48.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…26f8backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…5ee4backed Yes | 65c | 46.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 70c | 45.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…a673backed Yes | 65c | 38.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ed…5b4abacked No | 37c | 36.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 35.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…6f8abacked Yes | 70c | 35.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…a193backed Yes | 57c | 35.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…2ea6backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked Yes | 73c | 32.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…92eebacked Yes | 65c | 30.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…7ba9backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…54f9backed Yes | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…a055backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…9fe8backed Yes | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69c…9d7fbacked Yes | 69c | 23.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…a377backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…82fcbacked Yes | 66c | 18.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…09d3backed Yes | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Now here's a guy" be said at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will "Ann Michael Maye" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Apple" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Assault" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Bakemas" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Blowout" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Concussion" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Emerald City Route Artist" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Flushed out" or "Flush out" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "ICE" or "Border Patrol" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Jump ball" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Knee injury" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Olympics" or "Olympic" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Polymarket" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Spanish" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Style" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Touchback" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Trump" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will "Unbelievable" be said at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will "Underdog" be said at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.