TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1184…1b67

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
113
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$128.57
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$36.6
Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$1,054.62
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$372.29
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.26
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$72
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$215.94
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.87
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.85
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+85.9%+$321.09
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$273.3
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+104.1%+$351.9
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$226.2
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.02
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.62
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$632.61
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+163.2%+$287.68
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$116.56
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$577Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$577.08
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$67.5
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$137.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+270.4%+$476.69
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+233.3%+$134.4
All 23 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.56
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$319.24
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.84
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.64
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.96
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$169.2
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$610.5
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$140.6
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+354.5%+$239.46
Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$415.8
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+426.3%+$231.66
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96.98
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+222.6%+$315.33
Will "Tariff" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+58.7%+$245.31
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$182.86
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$80.45
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+47.1%+$176.32
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.36
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$745.74
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.71
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.54
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.6
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$799.26
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+244.8%+$36.21
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$120.5
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88.58
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63.36
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.98
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.55
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$97.29
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.68
Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.4
Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.72
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+43.1%+$232.07
Will "Sentimental Value" win in the Non-English Language Film category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$72.24
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+71.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+126.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+113.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$19.9
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinalsbacked East Texas A&M Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.52
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.32
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebelsbacked Ole Miss Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$741Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$741.31
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.87
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)backed Portsmouth FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$434.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$315.72
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$191.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+525%+$131.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$238.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$460.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$615.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$320.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$298.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 - Map 1 Winnerbacked sleepers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+78.6%+$41.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+46.4%+$132.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$129.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$35.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Toth be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$90.16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.