TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$317,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41ec…0b08backed Yes2c30,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c27,068$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.076291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes15c12,102$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.25822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c3,600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.11491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c2,490$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,668$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.911,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,449$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.243042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes2c1,444$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9219818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes19c1,373$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf49…286dbacked Yes20c1,345$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1c…db61backed Yes2c1,333$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes23c1,127$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed Yes18c1,103$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+21.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,048$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.181754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes16c1,023$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.681442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes16c999$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.842665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes18c997.64$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.275028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes25c798$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No78c790$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.82050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes20c784$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.261741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No75c739$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.751942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed Yes21c725.62$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.324032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes12c725.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3624315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes21c716$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.471181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+88.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c706.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes15c681.2$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.753342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes19c677$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.632035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed No77c670$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.11855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9121…575abacked Yes2c666.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed No79c626$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.461540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes23c622$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.062138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed Yes23c583$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.092536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes18c582$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.761936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes28c558.79$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed Yes17c520$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes11c500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3896…ece6backed No78c500$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1094247.6%20 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c4e…297bbacked No80c499.89$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.943145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked No78c475$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes22c475$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.52334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes18c474$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.323336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes18c459$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.622035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes19c452$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.881747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No77c427$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.212343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed Yes16c425$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8e9…858cbacked Yes26c423.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes17c422$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes16c410$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.62657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed Yes4c402.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No74c400$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes21c397$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed No79c397$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.371540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed Yes16c392$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72100%0 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No78c366$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.522045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No74c354$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.043132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes26c354$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.041540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb943…777dbacked Yes14c348.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed Yes18c342$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.561850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1808…1dfcbacked Yes6c341.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f80…be79backed Yes6c340.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Yes22c337$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.141010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked No78c337$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.141353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes18c329$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.221844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc00d…b3a0backed Yes31c319.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes22c319$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.181136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No78c319$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.181478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick48cpaid+142.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes17c301$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.171758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfebb…79bcbacked Yes21c299.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.81838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-44.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes19c289$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.912030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d91…7a49backed Yes5c281.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes22c251$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.221546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ac…d8c5backed No78c251$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.221241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+98.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6007…9553backed Yes17c249$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb2…590abacked Yes21c246.7$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.651353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee4f…b168backed Yes4c243.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Yes17c236$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c79…c259backed No77c228.99$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.681866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+43.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ef…ee50backed Yes27c225.32$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2216…4accbacked Yes14c223.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.990%0 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41dd…6e71backed Yes4c222.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc2…e4a1backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52f…fbfdbacked Yes24c212.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes20c211.6$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.025813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No77c211$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.531353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes16c210.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.822977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfda0…6aebbacked Yes14c208.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8402…d7a0backed Yes17c205.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes12c199.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes23c198$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.542040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked No74c189.45$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.949940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes23c189$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.471650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No54c176$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9612050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f8…6c22backed Yes22c175$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+110.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd1bf…7780backed No79c163.74$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes17c162.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2514643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes22c158$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked No77c156$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.881553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.