TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5be7…46ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
110
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.63
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$662.86
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.16
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.75
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$247
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$135.32
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$561.08
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.18
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.3
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$254.6
Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$215.74
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+244.8%+$357.84
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+316.7%+$535.04
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$87.55
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$772Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$771.82
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$185.9
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$316.16
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+37%+$75.6
Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+81.8%+$80.55
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.35
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$474
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.94
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.84
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.46
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.42
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,301Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$449.74
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+284.6%+$389.24
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$182.49
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$362.6
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$166.76
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$96.28
Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$71.34
Will Trump say "Nothing" 2+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$794Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+47.1%+$373.76
Will Trump say "General" or "Bondi" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+40.8%+$29.87
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+81.8%+$165.15
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+65.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$320.38
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$778.7
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$84.71
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.09
Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$215.04
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$280.44
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.06
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$828.18
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.77
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$138.3
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$52.08
Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$92.53
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+316.7%+$257.64
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$177.19
All 15 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid+29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.29
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$155.73
Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.1
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$282.96
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$508.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
Will Nicole Kidman attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.69
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+733.3%+$565.84
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$123.42
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+61.3%+$152
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+90.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+224.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.65
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?backed OpenAI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocksbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.74
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$207.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$271.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 20)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$21.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$226.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the April Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $100 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.