World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc453e51189066cfdf6895542af099bc7f298b91803e17f72ae541c48ee0b0fc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 43c | 1,361$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 57c | 1,244$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 56c | 1,050$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 43c | 1,001$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 44c | 967$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 69c | 941$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed Yes | 44c | 861$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 49c | 829$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 57c | 814$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 44c | 813$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 46c | 728$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked No | 54c | 728$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 44c | 721$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 42c | 711$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 45c | 689$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed Yes | 68c | 680$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 42c | 677$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 56c | 672$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 55c | 666$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 42c | 647$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 48c | 642$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 52c | 637$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 56c | 632$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 58c | 620$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +476.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 58c | 620$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed No | 52c | 605$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 57c | 603$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 52c | 589$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 43c | 581$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 57c | 564$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 44c | 555$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 51c | 553$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 57c | 543$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 58c | 537$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 44c | 530$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 43c | 522$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 56c | 509$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 57c | 501$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 43c | 499$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 56c | 495$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 57c | 480$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 56c | 467$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 56c | 448$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 42c | 447$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 58c | 447$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 56c | 445$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed Yes | 44c | 445$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 438$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 43c | 419$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 57c | 419$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 42c | 388$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 58c | 388$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 32c | 353$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed No | 57c | 338$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 43c | 332$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed No | 31c | 331$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 32c | 327$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 58c | 324$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 58c | 323$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 44c | 301$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 43c | 290$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 56c | 285$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 56c | 284$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 51c | 276$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 44c | 265$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 42c | 259$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 44c | 254$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 43c | 245$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 31c | 239$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +81%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 43c | 211$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 57c | 204$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 56c | 194$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 42c | 191$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked No | 57c | 171$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 56c | 149$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 57c | 148$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 43c | 148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked No | 57c | 112$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 56c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 30c | 70.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…02d1backed Yes | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 59c | 43.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…5052backed No | 50c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…9b62backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.