World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72a3a5f1ba3900d46cfea6aa7dc39322de347b694f6f0966a552dac8f18becc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3f…2a94backed No | 14c | 6,166$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 51c | 1,404$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 49c | 1,060$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 55c | 940$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 47c | 874$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 68c | 769$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 32c | 769$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 69c | 701$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 45c | 674$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 68c | 653$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 46c | 593$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…63c5backed No | 21c | 590$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 53c | 578$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…d9babacked No | 27c | 560$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 47c | 544$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 54c | 452$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 45c | 414$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 55c | 414$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 32c | 412$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 31c | 368$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 47c | 343$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 53c | 343$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 31c | 333$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…897dbacked Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…9de7backed Yes | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072c…0b1fbacked Yes | 73c | 280$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590f…d809backed Yes | 73c | 280$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 32c | 241$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6c65backed No | 12c | 166.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 53c | 152$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 53c | 144$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 54c | 141$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 74c | 122$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 25c | 97.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 76c | 52.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…f81dbacked Yes | 35c | 43.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…1451backed Yes | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…e05cbacked No | 48c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 79c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.