World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3262af3533820d47d5b77d1b0b6c68eea4a41270b1ee2d393d28f194a3072c61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 44c | 990$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 56c | 935$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 57c | 836$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 53c | 788$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 43c | 758$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 49c | 744$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 56c | 717$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 51c | 696$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 56c | 668$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…f08abacked Yes | 49c | 649$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed Yes | 44c | 585$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed Yes | 51c | 581$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 44c | 565$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 49c | 510$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 44c | 482$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 47c | 479$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 56c | 444$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 62c | 431.73$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 49c | 415.94$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.39 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 57c | 406$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 47c | 309$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 66c | 302.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked No | 56c | 292$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 43c | 288$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 57c | 282$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 43c | 282$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +296.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 56c | 273$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 43c | 269$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 57c | 269$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 74c | 255$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 51c | 244$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 44c | 235$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 43c | 225$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed No | 51c | 219$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 60c | 205$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 51c | 169$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 47c | 156$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 36c | 142$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 56c | 114$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed No | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 57c | 107$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ad31backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Yes | 62c | 97.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 44c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…f5f8backed No | 29c | 69.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 52.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…9952backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 34.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked No | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…e05cbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fdb5backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.