World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce32279b70b3a53deb8607fea6f3b6f447c1cbbee1640da5f0f93fea02dcba61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 32c | 1,372$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 18c | 1,118$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 18c | 1,117$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 22c | 1,056$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 42c | 926$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked No | 58c | 890$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +75%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 32c | 846$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 68c | 814$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 80c | 802$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 20c | 747$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 68c | 607$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 32c | 596$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 80c | 563$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 68c | 558$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 68c | 553$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 32c | 530$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 68c | 523$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 68c | 485$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 32c | 471$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +259.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 32c | 408$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 68c | 408$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 20c | 394$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 80c | 394$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 68c | 386$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 18c | 354$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 18c | 333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 32c | 303$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 68c | 281$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 58c | 277$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed Yes | 42c | 277$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 20c | 260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed No | 80c | 203$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 18c | 196$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 68c | 167$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 32c | 166$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed No | 68c | 166$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 20c | 148$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…3e8bbacked Yes | 38c | 132.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 65c | 102.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 80c | 93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…7d89backed Yes | 68c | 73.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…b50fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 79c | 45.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…e05cbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 27.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.