World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96acc6dd89d11a00895401e8dfcb348cef3ce2d170af9d2849054e655306b527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed Yes | 12c | 1,315$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 12c | 1,111$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 12c | 1,075$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 12c | 981$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 12c | 905$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 12c | 903$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 12c | 832$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 12c | 725$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 15c | 672$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 12c | 669$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 12c | 628$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 12c | 586$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 19c | 572$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 12c | 530$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 12c | 524$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 12c | 524$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 12c | 409$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 12c | 343$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 12c | 330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 12c | 302$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 12c | 257$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 12c | 251$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 12c | 209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…86b7backed Yes | 12c | 183$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 12c | 171$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 75c | 168.38$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 12c | 154$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 12c | 129$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…177dbacked Yes | 31c | 81.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…c46cbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.