Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66552a6163994f259471d34d00c655483def4d3ba8fdcbc5e44826a0b69d4bbb

Rebuilt 35 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,744
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,744 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0184…23f6backed Yes	54c	1,004$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.5	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked No	79c	959$758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.39	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed Yes	66c	959$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.94	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No	79c	941$743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.61	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.25per pick	41cpaid	+261.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdece…08dbbacked No	79c	918$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.78	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes	22c	911$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.42	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed Yes	66c	868$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.88	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes	22c	849$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.78	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes	66c	812$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes	21c	763$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.23	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes	21c	738$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed No	57c	714$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.44	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked No	34c	706$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.96	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes	66c	706$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.96	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c5…b4e1backed No	34c	680$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed No	34c	637$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.42	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed No	79c	630$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.3	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed No	69c	557$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.07	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed No	78c	513$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.86	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No	79c	495$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.95	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No	78c	481$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.82	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No	34c	462$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.92	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes	48c	460$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.77	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+168.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes	21c	439$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.19	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x997f…b3c2backed Yes	21c	426$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.46	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-44%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No	34c	404$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.64	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed Yes	21c	401$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes	21c	373$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.33	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+76%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed Yes	70c	369$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed No	30c	369$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	+91.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes	22c	363$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.86	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed No	34c	362$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$238.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x673d…e929backed No	79c	356$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.76	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.5wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+403.2%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes	21c	347$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.87	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	38cpaid	+144.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed No	79c	344.72$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.6	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67f2…6a72backed No	33c	314$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.38	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd569…3037backed Yes	67c	314$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	+117.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe584…36b2backed No	34c	279$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.14	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+106.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No	78c	278$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.16	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No	78c	273$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.06	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.21per pick	43cpaid	+85.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes	66c	261$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.26	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No	34c	261$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.26	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes	21c	245$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+272.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes	69c	238.11$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.45	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed No	32c	232.48$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.85	103	54.4%56 W · 47 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes	21c	157$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	43cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes	21c	155$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.55	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No	78c	147$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.34	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	7c	142.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed No	79c	130$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed No	34c	113$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.58	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked Yes	21c	91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked No	78c	90$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5aa…c200backed No	30c	75$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x926c…a86bbacked Yes	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6a…9952backed Yes	66c	70$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d04…f7b1backed Yes	78c	64.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No	79c	44$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No	30c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	57	68.4%39 W · 18 L	+11.1wins	+0.19per pick	49cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbba2…df0fbacked Yes	67c	37.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	33c	35.91$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.06	990	17.2%170 W · 820 L	-148.8wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0xb4e4…9cedbacked Yes	68c	34.62$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.54	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked No	79c	33$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.93	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event