TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa6b8…0137

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$339.5
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.51
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.4
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$26.45
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.24
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$623Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$934.8
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.44
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.95
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$254.76
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.25
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.68
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.1
Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$235.98
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$119.6
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$241.4
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$151.34
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.52
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.62
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$370.11
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$47.85
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$104.04
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.18
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$29.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$429.04
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$37.24
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$355.94
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+177.8%+$178.56
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$137.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$130
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$715Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$368.56
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.64
Canada recession before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$578.79
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$279
Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.3
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$355.3
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$335.54
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$389.34
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$288.64
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+75.6%+$307.44
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$588.8
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.45
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.4
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.36
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.32
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$126.36
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+203%+$253.93
Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$166.87
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+248.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$126
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+354.5%+$376.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+390.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (W)backed Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+880.4%+$915.06
Tulane Green Wave vs. Memphis Tigers (W)backed Memphis Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$900.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.4
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+138.1%+$273.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+400%+$244
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$66.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$400.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.