Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23fb7144dc397df0d15e31bcf25dc1aa00fe9a776272897cbef1866418d3de1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 0c | 119,933$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 32c | 1,176$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 59c | 959$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 67c | 788$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 29c | 784$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 33c | 780$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 30c | 764$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 30c | 744$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 58c | 669$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 47c | 661$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked No | 42c | 649$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 63c | 626$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 41c | 623$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed Yes | 70c | 602$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 71c | 587$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 65c | 574$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 30c | 571$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 51c | 565$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 49c | 487$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 67c | 468$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 35c | 456$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 70c | 451$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 53c | 408$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 70c | 386$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 41c | 382$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 37c | 380$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 33c | 379$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 70c | 375$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 70c | 358$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 70c | 357$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 60c | 333.31$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 35c | 330$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…f70dbacked Yes | 64c | 323.8$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed No | 29c | 320$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 61c | 312$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 51c | 302$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…71cdbacked Yes | 64c | 272.95$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 71c | 265.07$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 37c | 246$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…3fe1backed No | 36c | 239.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 70c | 218$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 49c | 212$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 65c | 212$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 35c | 204.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 203.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 71c | 197$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…dff8backed No | 36c | 157.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 51c | 132$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a0eebacked Yes | 64c | 123.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 52c | 119$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 70c | 112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 53c | 105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 70c | 103$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 63c | 103$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 37c | 103$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 70c | 99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 67c | 81.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…2e76backed Yes | 69c | 79.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 52c | 71.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 43c | 67.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 67.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 30c | 62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 53c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 70c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 56.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 51.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 69c | 47.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 42.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 40.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d7…73e9backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…efcebacked Yes | 56c | 38.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 70c | 31.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed Yes | 66c | 30.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 56c | 29.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 35c | 29.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 44c | 27.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…6567backed Yes | 75c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 54c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…26c9backed No | 45c | 24.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…b033backed Yes | 62c | 21.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Yes | 60c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 61c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +222.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 70c | 15.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?this page
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?Yes won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 80 and 90?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be less than 50?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.