Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e1823245cd95c4478680ede7c67519720f2307cea68a929f479e439a5febdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 71c | 1,112$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 29c | 937$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 77c | 913$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 23c | 726$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 77c | 620$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked No | 77c | 553$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 23c | 544$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 23c | 536$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 22c | 531$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 11c | 518$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 78c | 511$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 25c | 498$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 75c | 471$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 69c | 466.16$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked No | 78c | 453$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 77c | 438$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 11c | 425$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 23c | 408$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 23c | 369$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 14c | 307$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 14c | 302$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 14c | 294$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 77c | 288$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 28c | 272$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 72c | 272$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 11c | 265$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 29c | 258.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 22c | 252$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 26c | 241$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 23c | 241$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed No | 74c | 228$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 78c | 208$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 70c | 195.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 23c | 145$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 22c | 132$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 22c | 129$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 22c | 128$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 27c | 127.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 29c | 124$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 119$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed Yes | 29c | 117$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 77c | 98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 69.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +222.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 72c | 43.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 40.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 37.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…2f5cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…b033backed No | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?this page
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 80 and 90?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be less than 50?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.