TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf021…0da3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Movies, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$524.7
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.8
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.74
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$592Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$592.03
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+300%+$201.75
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+100%+$137.5
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+334.8%+$111.65
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$41.63
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.88
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+244.8%+$171.11
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.55
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.6
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.28
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.2
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$90.8
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.86
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$239.32
Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+47.1%+$100.8
Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+244.8%+$692.96
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$245.52
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+488.2%+$257.3
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$167.25
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$473.77
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.58
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.74
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.28
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$158.1
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.46
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$176.4
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+92.3%+$183.84
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$638.75
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+37%+$99.63
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.58
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$103.92
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$36.49
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.08
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$106.53
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.26
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$30.8
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.5
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.96
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$108.05
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+295.3%+$295.81
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$58.88
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$29.64
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$632Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$210.5
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$96.76
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$160.56
Will Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$49.88
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+185.7%+$50.05
All 8 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+156.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+188.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Octra FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$36.19
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+42.9%+$121.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$119.4
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$181.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$704.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$608.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$105.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$274.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$103.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$24.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$31.23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.