AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ebfca7b3401333df9659774b71929f95576e23c30c3b76fe9c23092a86e5491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5803…b522backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 28c | 2,860$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.64 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 73c | 914.99$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 41c | 796$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 59c | 530$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 27c | 507$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 73c | 501$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 73c | 488$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 27c | 483$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.59 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 77c | 325.48$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.01 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 74c | 310.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.24 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 17c | 310$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 64c | 272.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 59c | 266$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No | 27c | 242$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 32cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 242$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Yes | 77c | 223.75$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 17c | 221$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…6430backed Yes | 72c | 207.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 40c | 203.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x394e…23d2backed Yes | 77c | 201.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 73c | 193$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 79c | 190.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 16c | 135$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 20c | 124.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 104.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 100.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…13dbbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 67c | 96.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 84.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 66c | 76.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 77c | 69.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 59c | 69.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x642d…3de0backed Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 64.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 53c | 62.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…dfffbacked Yes | 66c | 58.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 73c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…30ccbacked Yes | 52c | 52.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 50.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…91c9backed Yes | 59c | 48.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Yes | 76c | 46.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 70c | 43.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 41c | 42.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 53c | 39.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6c…5bbdbacked Yes | 65c | 35.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…d98ebacked No | 38c | 35.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a4…a96abacked Yes | 75c | 26.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91f…2f5cbacked Yes | 80c | 16.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…b890backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.