AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b470ad8463dcb445425ad9dedd60e02ca77639a0f99b4458c53a0c138f751ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 27c | 866.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.75 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…c7ffbacked Yes | 47c | 835.48$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 11c | 770$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 35c | 734.25$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 65c | 617.91$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.91 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 37c | 583.59$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.35 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 16c | 492$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed Yes | 12c | 470$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 57c | 466.95$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.01 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 65c | 283.52$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.14 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 67c | 246.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 11c | 245$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef9…fb7ebacked Yes | 71c | 239.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 226.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 77c | 180.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…a0f7backed Yes | 34c | 116.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +392.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes | 12c | 116$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed Yes | 16c | 92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…30ccbacked Yes | 13c | 84.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 83.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bd…300dbacked Yes | 53c | 77.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…7827backed Yes | 67c | 61.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260f…dfffbacked Yes | 30c | 58.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…b522backed Yes | 38c | 39.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 37.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 35.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 73c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.