TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$833,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$929,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $833,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 923 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No47c201,475$95,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,514.8514821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes49c136,331$66,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,529.053764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd628…43c1backed Yes64c30,000$19,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,797.942955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes59c23,126$13,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,45164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No46c21,522$9,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,941.9637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No49c17,110$8,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,396.0226423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No35c13,986$4,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,915.767732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes55c13,671$7,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,210.938538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes51c12,614$6,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,161.6210435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes71c11,424$8,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.6618338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes51c10,836$5,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,308.245158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes61c10,000$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8804553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes60c9,481$5,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,792.3219531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes65c9,410$6,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.495343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No42c8,455$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.7231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5307…7621backed Yes64c7,612$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,740.32785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes62c7,571$4,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.3114129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5145…1f46backed Yes48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6401586.7%13 W · 2 L+8.5wins+0.56per pick30cpaid+238%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes57c6,251$3,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.0312038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes46c6,102$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.3912634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab0c…2ca3backed Yes66c5,564$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.36944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes66c5,500$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.8535631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No3c5,020$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.69535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes66c4,845$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes57c4,229$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.5619829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f0…815dbacked Yes51c4,149$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e89…ab56backed No49c4,103$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d62…527abacked No49c4,101$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes59c4,059$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.391435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbe…3125backed Yes51c3,943$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No36c3,889$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.356134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No33c3,861$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.163141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked No55c3,836$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9f09…2848backed Yes57c3,637$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.555437%20 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes65c3,420$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.025248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e6…4fa4backed Yes58c3,398$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.788100%8 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+138.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No45c3,271$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.443933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe022…8e19backed No52c3,200$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes62c3,105$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.1514039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes64c3,033$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.3410043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes50c3,020$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.2611844.1%52 W · 66 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No38c2,791$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.7721521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No38c2,776$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.3451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc8…0e75backed Yes51c2,749$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…6ea9backed No49c2,621$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes57c2,571$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1058827.3%24 W · 64 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c2,523$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.595071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes78c2,348$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.1935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes45c2,218$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.872138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes42c2,110$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.781844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No55c2,101$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.5710444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2f…fb79backed Yes40c2,068$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.041838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No53c2,029$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.5820438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da3…c856backed No49c2,001$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…5ee9backed Yes49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+64.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e77…c4f3backed No55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.893135.5%11 W · 20 L-9.8wins-0.32per pick67cpaid-52.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x381f…bc99backed Yes51c1,943$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.241872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…eec8backed Yes51c1,941$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes53c1,893$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.464434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No43c1,870$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.126813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5383…8a76backed Yes58c1,727$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.02875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+55.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4c8…6109backed Yes58c1,723$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.634100%4 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+161.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9419…a40fbacked No46c1,704$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.512638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a18…6ffabacked No60c1,658$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No46c1,643$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No50c1,598$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80021259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb678…3913backed Yes54c1,566$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.042751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b68…2c57backed Yes62c1,556$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No15c1,515$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.329254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes54c1,471$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.6310464.4%67 W · 37 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb83…8f26backed No35c1,431$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50350%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No37c1,418$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.849942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed Yes57c1,347$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.085743.9%25 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes52c1,338$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.686026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes52c1,334$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.6713348.1%64 W · 69 L+20.7wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+143.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2c69…1019backed No51c1,300$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No46c1,278$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.935527.3%15 W · 40 L-12.7wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No55c1,258$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.91741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No62c1,246$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.522347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes57c1,232$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.2845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No33c1,212$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.846540%26 W · 39 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd592…b119backed Yes45c1,200$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.673148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes63c1,167$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.793545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa67d…cd6dbacked Yes64c1,166$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.61225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No56c1,165$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.41723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes43c1,141$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.381435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No44c1,136$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.7948630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0592…49aabacked No36c1,110$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No44c1,110$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.6513342.1%56 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes59c1,109$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.793360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes52c1,103$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.2322846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes70c1,050$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.367431.1%23 W · 51 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-6.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e2…c729backed Yes66c1,040$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3541060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…89bbbacked Yes58c1,010$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.356633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202528%7 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-34.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63015232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc443…bbdbbacked Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x277e…7d32backed Yes64c1,000$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.462166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes35c999.97$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.9856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.