TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6c7…f199

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
107
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.95
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$24.18
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.89
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$53.76
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$100.74
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$72.96
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$22
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.56
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$74.53
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.09
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.93
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$83.2
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.88
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$273
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.09
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.14
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.28
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.77
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.51
All 22 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$375.83
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$79.75
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$131.12
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$170.4
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.9
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.92
Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.31
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$28.6
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+85.2%+$186.3
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.7%+$138.26
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$93.93
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$80.78
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+138.1%+$100.34
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30.25
Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$75.2
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$38.16
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+26.6%+$122.22
Will Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$171.14
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 74?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$108.2
Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+40.9%+$50.24
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$37
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$450.74
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$213.52
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$284.75
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$691.9
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$310.31
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.58
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+138.1%+$384.54
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.88
Syria strikes Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.74
U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.25
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.19
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+112.8%+$240.09
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+28.2%+$44
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+31.6%+$22.08
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$21.84
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.99
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$15.4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+426.3%+$447.93
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$149.4
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$36.52
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$160.14
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.75
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$25.27
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+85.2%+$103.04
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60.36
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick27cpaid+219.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+122.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+88.6%+$185.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+84.7%+$165.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+75.4%+$87.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$219.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.