TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x89b2…0eb2backed No40c1,590$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+116.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No43c1,461$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed Yes64c1,421$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked No43c1,372$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed Yes57c1,259$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8465…6cd7backed Yes57c1,248$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes58c1,149$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed No43c1,121$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes61c962$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No43c917$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.31837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed No32c779$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes57c754$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed No43c744$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes57c738$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes57c734$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No43c733$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes57c703$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+124.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked No43c631$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed No43c620$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed No43c565$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes57c558$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes57c553$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes57c541$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes58c533$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e96…c895backed No43c510$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No43c506$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+96.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked No43c498$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+202%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes54c497$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.48343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x864a…9ed1backed Yes57c484$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed No43c484$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked Yes57c469$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed Yes57c461$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes58c450$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.11757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes57c435$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes14c389$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick27cpaid+219.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked No42c374$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed No43c362$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed Yes57c357$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+58%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed No43c331$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7039…2d8abacked Yes57c330$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes74c324.1$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.0822948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes57c322$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed No42c318$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked No43c305$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes58c293$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No43c288$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed No43c286$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes57c279$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No43c269$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No47c267$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.617447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes78c260.48$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.93458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No42c230$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.137852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes57c222$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed Yes57c186$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+102.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes57c185$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No43c181$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed Yes57c177$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.11580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick37cpaid+165.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No12c176.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.962045%9 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed No43c168$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No16c167.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8427222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes49c165.62$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.047429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes58c164$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No31c161.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed No42c159$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No15c150.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.916020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed Yes57c148$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed Yes57c144$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+237.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed Yes57c129$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.471258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No43c119$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.171127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes58c118$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No43c118$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.741533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No42c118$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No43c116$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes68c112.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8416632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No42c112.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1860%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No42c109$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.781050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No42c103$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2fd…f0b5backed No37c97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8730%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No43c93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes69c90.38$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.113625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked Yes58c89$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.38560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes57c83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.69333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed Yes57c83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.69650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked No42c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No31c79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6313317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes57c78$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.541070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes57c78$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes57c74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.82757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked No43c74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed No20c73.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.791931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No43c73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.391241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No38c72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No28c69.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0749511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes57c67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.811050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No53c57.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.036710.4%7 W · 60 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-68.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed No43c57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed No42c55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes58c54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.