TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x465c…6e53

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Stocks, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$268.6
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.82
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$47.46
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$91.8
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.07
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$46.8
Will "Sinners" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$464.58
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$122.76
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$89.04
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$74.49
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$131.1
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$179.4
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$173.42
Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$261.36
Will Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) win Best Actress – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$51.36
Will Noah Wyle (The Pitt) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$58.71
Will "Weird" or "Weirdo" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$43.23
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.9
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+144.5%+$380.01
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$522.24
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$484.12
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.79
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.15
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+132.4%+$128.17
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$191.36
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$166.59
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$154.94
All 12 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$63.91
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.78
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.11
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$352.95
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$251.16
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$331.5
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76.7
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$228.95
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$53.04
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$69.81
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.5%+$203.17
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+287.9%+$494.3
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$19.2
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.92
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$21.34
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.09
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+170.3%+$100.17
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$85.36
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23.52
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$366.54
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-66.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$433.69
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.1
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$26.91
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$343.97
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.9
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.84
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$109.02
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$74.2
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.35 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$65.79
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$471.96
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick56cpaid+85.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$302.94
Will Cirkut win 1 Grammy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+42.9%+$39.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$22.08
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$156.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+40.8%+$103.24
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)backed Villarreal CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$91.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+92.3%+$228.48
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$202.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$359.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$258.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+49.3%+$212.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Furia qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$26.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+25%+$57.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$133.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$68.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.