Middle East · resolved market
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af8d768cfb7ca4140d25c3912d7ded06077cb3c22880ea93218645f7e0850c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 58c | 1,165$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 74c | 957$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 26c | 957$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 26c | 789$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 26c | 761$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 42c | 598$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 42c | 567$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 74c | 538$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 27c | 535$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed No | 74c | 513$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 74c | 499$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 73c | 406$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…5bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 194.76$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 72c | 141$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 73c | 129$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 13c | 98.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 33c | 37.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…702dbacked No | 67c | 37.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…18d8backed No | 70c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 71c | 30.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Yes | 78c | 21.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…1ebfbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 57c | 19.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 64c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?this page
- Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15?No won
- Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.