TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x966b…2ee6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3066.7%20 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$20.02
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$20.61
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.47
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.94
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.83
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.78
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.63
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.36
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.03
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.97
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$13.53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$19.33
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$33.93
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$4.23
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$7.61
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$7.94
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$4.08
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$7.54
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$5.62
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$7.74
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+65.8%+$16.18
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.42
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+36%+$3.61
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$6.83
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$43.94
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$6.99
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$10.28
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.13
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.44
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+45.8%+$12.86
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+75.5%+$9.38
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$7.94
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$13.69
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$5.6
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29%+$4.58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$4.56
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+73.7%+$9.05
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+69.2%+$6.97
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.63
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.24
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$3.66
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$3.88
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+27.7%+$3.86
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$6.26
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+93.7%+$9.55
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$3.05
Services Down Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$3.71
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.48
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$3.18
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$3.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+89.8%+$9.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+56.8%+$6.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$3.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 900k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$12.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.14
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.