Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d9c386e5b92f18f4e2fa37a36900d911afafc382eab40482a63ec2e50340c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 77c | 3,259$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,666$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.12 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 47c | 936.64$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.88 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 800$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 9c | 771.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 23c | 742.09$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 13c | 416.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 23c | 368.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed Yes | 11c | 353.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 64c | 314.96$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…4786backed Yes | 25c | 288$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 77c | 259.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 203.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 21c | 186.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 174.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 79c | 167.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 80c | 156.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 145.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…b330backed No | 73c | 136.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 76c | 132.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…7514backed No | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 53c | 119.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 106.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +313.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 55c | 94.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 75c | 81.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…2d58backed Yes | 40c | 75.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 67.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 56c | 60.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 54c | 59.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efa…d6e1backed Yes | 44c | 57.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…044bbacked Yes | 22c | 54.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…801dbacked Yes | 45c | 53.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 77c | 53.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 52.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…8cabbacked No | 70c | 42.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…8defbacked No | 79c | 41.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 79c | 41.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 40.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked Yes | 33c | 39.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 30c | 36.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 56c | 30.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 55c | 29.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…f5fdbacked No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed No | 68c | 24.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 58c | 24.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 76c | 21.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…a2cebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 78c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.